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tv   Meet the Press  NBC  March 14, 2016 2:58am-4:01am EDT

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an inspirational family, each and every one of them. thanks for watching. this sunday, fear, loathing and now violence on the trump campaign trail. days before make or break primaries on the second super tuesday, trump's opponents blame him. >> when you have a campaign that affirmatively encourages violence. >> and openly worry what will happen if he's the nominee. >> i still at this moment continue to support the republican nominee, getting harder every day. >> while president obama blames the republican party for trump's rise. >> how can you be shocked? this is the guy remember who was sure that i was born in kenya. >> my interview with donald trump at a critical moment in his candidacy. ted cruz and john kasich join me
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as well. plus, the democrats, bernie sanders' win in michigan gives him new hope. and the clinton campaign new reasons to worry about the midwest. and brand new polls out of florida, ohio and illinois. there's a lot more uncertainty about tuesday than you might think. joining me for insight and analysis this sunday morning are republican strategist alex castillanos. influential radio talk show host hugh hewitt. welcome to sunday. it's "meet the press." from nbc news in washington, this is "meet the press" with chuck todd. good sunday morning. students in history know how familiar chicago is with violence at political events. in 1968 anti-vietnam war protesters clashed with police at the democratic national convention in chicago. ultimately what played out ultimately became known as a police riot, the chaos
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humphrey's defeat and loss in that fall. and pushing and fighting led to donald trump can't scheduled appearance. ted cruz and marco rubio and john kasich agreed the ugly scene was the result of a toxic environment nurtured and encouraged by trump. and here's hillary clinton adding her perspective yesterday. >> if you play with matches, you can start a fire you can't control. that is not leadership. that is political arson. >> but to his supporters it was another example of opponents trying to deny the leading candidate for the republican nomination his right to free speech. and all of this comes just days ahead of what we're calling separation tuesday. five primaries that may finally separate front-runners donald trump and hillary clinton from their opponents. and three new nbc/"the wall street
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this morning. in florida an absolute must-win for rubio. he trails donald trump by a nearly two to one margin 43-22. ted cruz at 21% right behind rubio. in illinois trump's lead is smaller, but it's significant over cruz and kasich. he's got a nine-point lead over cruz but kasich a close third there to cruz. but in ohio it is governor john kasich holding a slim six-point lead over donald trump 39-33. obviously a kasich win there would keep him in the race and complicate trump's effort to win a majority of the delegates before the convention. hillary clinton is leading sanders in all three states up 61-34 in florida. clinton with a 20-point lead in ohio, but both campaigns dispute that one. and it's much closer in illinois where clinton leads by just six points, 51-45. a lot of democrats believe rahm emanuel backlash is helping bernie sanders there. we're going to get to the democratic race later, but we're going to start with the republicans and there
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mr. trump, welcome back to "meet the press," sir. >> good morning. >> i got to start with what's been happening over the last 48 to 72 hours. do you accept any responsibility whatsoever for the escalated tension that takes place at your rallies? >> well, i think if anything a lot of people have praised me for canceling the one rally. we had 25,000 people coming, we got a lot of them not to come through notice. and the rest of them we canceled because we had disrupters out there. they weren't really protesters, they were disrupters, like professionals. they had bernie sanders signs all over the place and made by bernie sanders people. these were professionally made signs. and rather than going, which i could have done pretty easily, i would have gone, made a speech, you would have had an awfully big riot and a lot of people would have been hurt. and i've been given a lot of credit for not going. and everybody disbursed and nobody was injured or hurt or beyond that. >> okay. but earlier i
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was an incident between a supporter of yours and a protester. and i want to play a piece of sound from a couple weeks ago from you and ask you about it on the other side. >> there's a guy totally disruptive throwing punches. i love the old days. you know what they used to do to guys like that when they were in a place like this? they'd be carried out on a stretcher, folks. like to punch him in the face, i'll tell ya. >> mr. trump, 17 days later that actually happened. one of your supporters decided to sucker punch a protester. do you accept any responsibility for creating this atmosphere? >> i don't accept responsibility. i do not condone violence in any shape. and i will tell you from what i saw the young man stuck his finger up in the air and the other man sort of just had it. but i still i don't condone violence. as far as my previous statement, we had somebody that was
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crazy, a disrupter. they're not protesters. i'm telling you, they're disrupters. they're professionals. he went absolutely wild punching. and frankly, when they punch, it's okay. when my people punch back because they have to out of self-defense, everybody says, oh, isn't that terrible. the fact is that we have very peaceful rallies. i've had many, many rallies -- i have 25 -- 30,000 people coming to rallies. and out of that we have very little problem. we haven't had a real injury or anything. and then chicago i canceled and i did a great thing by canceling it because who needs the problems, who needs people getting hurt? i didn't want that. >> but when you say -- >> so instead of getting -- >> but mr. trump, when you say you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knocked crap out of them. i promise i'll pay for your legal fees. how is that not condoning what this older general m er
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protester? >> let me explain what happened. i was told by the secret service, sir, there's a person -- or two people in the audience that have tomatoes. they are going to throw them at you, we think. if they do throw them, you have to be prepared. now, you get hit in the face with a tomato, let me tell you somebody with a strong arm at least, let me tell you it can be very damaging. not good. so i was told people were in the audience -- two people with tomatoes that they're going to throw them at me. what i did is say, by the way, if you see anybody with tomat s tomatoes, right at the beginning. >> yeah. >> you got to stop them. do whatever you have to do. i have no objection to what i said. i would say it again. people are there doing harm, you have to go and you have to use equal force. >> do you plant -- >> it's not fair. it's a one way street. >> i'm curious, do you plan on paying for the legal fees of this older gentleman who punched the protester? >> i want to see what that young man
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he was very taunting. he was very loud. very disruptive. and from what i understand he was sticking a certain finger up in the air. and that is a terrible thing to do in front of somebody that, frankly, wants to see america made great again. and so we'll see. i'm going to take a look at it. >> and that condones -- and that condones a sucker punch though? >> no, as i told you before, nothing condones. but i want to see. the man got carried away. he was 78 years old. he obviously loves this country. and maybe he doesn't like seeing what's happening to the country. i want to see the full tape. >> so you might pay for his legal fees? >> i -- well, i'm going to look at it. i'm going to see what was behind this because it was a strange event. but from what i heard there was a -- you know, there was a lot of taunting and a certain finger was placed in the air. not nice. again, i don't condone the violence. i don't condone what he did, but you know what -- >> so it's possible -- it's possible you could help him with
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>> i've actually instructed my people to look into it, yes. >> okay. i want to ask you about the moment yesterday in dayton. looked like a scary moment being rushed to the stage. i want to ask you, you said it was -- you praised the secret service, but then you said the man had ties to isis. turned out to be a hoax. did you go over the top there on that? where did you -- >> no, no. he was -- if you look on the internet, if you look into clips -- >> turned out to be a hoax. somebody made that up, sir. >> he had talk -- well, i don't know what they made up. all i can do is play what's there. he was walking dragging the american flag on the ground. is that a correct statement? was that a hoax too? >> well, that -- >> was he just dragging it along? >> i'm talking about the isis tweet. >> you didn't see the clip. >> we're playing the clip right now. >> you didn't see the clip. he was playing arabic music. he was dragging the flag along the ground and he had internet chatter with
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so i don't know if he was or not, but all we did was put out what he had on his internet. he's dragging the flag, the american flag, which i respect obviously more than you. he was dragging the american flag on the ground like it was a piece of garbage. okay. i don't like that. and a lot of people don't like that. and he also had chatter about isis or with isis. and you take a look at it. i mean, people are looking at it very seriously now, but you have to check it before you ask the question. >> we have checked it, that's my point, sir. there's no ties to isis for this man. no law enforcement official. and this video that you link to appears to be a hoax. >> okay. well, was it a hoax that he's dragging the flag? was that him? it looked like the same man to me. he was dragging a flag along the ground. and he was playing a certain type of music. and supposedly there was chatter about isis. now, i don't know. what do i know about it? all i know is what's on the internet. and i don't like to see a man dragging the american flag along
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>> all right. i want to -- marco rubio said some pretty tough things about you yesterday. i want to play it and get you to react to it on the other side. >> he doesn't want to say anything to his supporters because he doesn't want to turn them off. because he understands the reason why they are voting for him is because he's tapped into this anger. when the person you're supporting for president is going around saying things like go ahead and slap him around, i'll pay your legal fees, what do you think's going to happen next? someone's going to actually literally believe it and take it upon themselves. >> marco rubio right? are you afraid to tell your supporters to back off? >> look, first of all, marco rubio has the worst voting record in the united states senate in many, many years. he doesn't even show up to vote. he's defrauded the people of florida. he won't even show up to vote. and i want to tell you, for him to be talking like that is absolutely a shame. i have great support. i have great supporters far greater than you understand. the fact is if you look at the -- if you look at the polls going in for the
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caucuses. we're up 65% and 70%. some are up 102%. millions and millions of people are energized. they're going and voting. by the way, that's not for marco rubio and not for lying ted cruz, that's for trump. they're there voting for trump. >> okay. >> because they want to see america be made great again. >> i understand that. but i want to button this up a little bit. this violence on the campaign trail, it's got a lot of people concerned. and i guess, why won't you go up on stage and ratchet it back? you've used rhetoric about islam hates us, surveillance of certain mosques, calling mexican immigrants rapists. what did you expect? a lot of people say you're reaping what you sow here, that the reason you have so much violence at rallies is you use the rhetoric. >> the reason there's tension at my rallies is that these people are sick and tired of this country being run by incompetent people that don't know what they're doing on trade deals
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out of our country, chuck. they're being ripped out. on isis where we can't even beat isis with our military. our military's not being taken care of. we can't even beat isis. on our vets who are being treated horribly, frankly they're being treated worse than illegal immigrants. the people are angry at that. they're not angry about something i'm saying. i'm just a messenger. the people are angry about the fact that for 12 years the workers in this country haven't had a pay increase, chuck, in 12 years they haven't had an effective pay increase. >> so you will not call for ratcheting back the rhetoric? you will not call for it? >> well, i haven't said anything that i'm just expressing my opinion. what have i said that's wrong? i mean, i talk about illegal immigration, i talk about building a wall, i say mexico's going to pay for the wall, which they will. and all of these things. i mean, what have i said that's wrong? you tell me. the fact is they're really upset with the way our country is being run. it's a disgrace. >> i will leave it there. mr. trump, stay safe on
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trail. we'll watch you tuesday. thank you, sir. >> thank you. it would be fair to say that tuesday is make or break for my next guest, ohio governor john kasich. he needs to win his home state of ohio to deal a blow to donald trump, and the signs are good for him this morning with the latest poll giving the governor a five-point lead. governor kasich, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thanks, chuck. always great to be with you. >> well, let me just start with what's been the dominant theme over the last 72 hours. you yesterday went out of your way to criticize donald trump for creating the toxic environment that it appears to have engulfed this campaign over the last 72 hours in his own rallies. how can you still sit there and say you'll support him if he's the nominee if he is creating a toxic environment like this? i got to think you seem to be struggling with this. >> well, it's tough. i mean, but he's not going to be the nominee, chuck. i mean, as you know i'm ahead in ohio. i'm going to win ohio with the great support, i hope, of the ohiofo
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going to help me to take the message and the formula that's helped to fix ohio, improve ohio, to washington. and, you know, it's tough. i mean, i just listened to the last minute of this interview. it's everything is negative. everything is america's losing and we're terrible and i mean, come on. we're not -- we're doing -- look, we got our challenges. people are worried about the security of their job, worried about the wages, worried about not getting any interest in the bank, worried about their kids' future. but we can fix these things. we've been through far tougher situations before. the depression, world war ii, 9/11. we can fix this. and, you know, i walk into a room and i tell people we can get this done by remembering we're americans before we're republicans and democrats. and conservative principles can fix this thing. of course it's a struggle. >> you know, i have to say, yesterday you said he's close to disqualifying himself.
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disqualify himself? >> let's see what happens. the last debate everything settled down. remember, i've been calling for i don't know how many debates for people to put our their vision and be positive. and it was moving in the right direction. let's see. he's not going to be the nominee, chuck. i have to tell you, it's not going to happen. >> by the way, how does it happen for you? we've done the math. you will go onto win ohio. you need 112% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number. >> yeah. >> now, i wasn't a math major, but that's mathematically impossible. so how do you get there? obviously it has to be a contested convention, right? >> well, look, there's 1,000 delegates yet to pick, is my understanding. and don't be surprised if i go to the convention with the largest number of delegates. is it likely that we'll have to have some sort of a multiballot convention? it's probably likely, but you never know in politics, chuck. you know that. what's true today is not necessarily true tomorrow. all i'm doing is telling people i've helped to
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400,000 jobs in ohio, we're running surpluses, wages are going up faster than the national average. i did it in washington. and i want to go back and do it one more time. that's what i want to do. and that's what i'm focused on. >> now, obviously this whole thing contested convention not only hinges on you doing well in ohio, it may hinge on rubio doing well in florida. here's what marco rubio said about you yesterday. >> clearly john kasich is -- has a better chance of winning ohio than i do. and if a voter in ohio concludes that voting for john kasich gives us the best chance to stop donald trump there, i anticipate that's what they will do. >> and as you know his campaign went onto say they're encouraging their supporters to do that in ohio. why aren't you reciprocating and asking your supporters in florida to do the same thing for marco rubio? >> well, chuck, first of all, my voters are not like robots where i can say go do something, okay. how do you run for office and tell people to vote for somebody else? but let's be clear. i'm not in
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in fact, i tried to call marco last night to wish him good luck. i couldn't get him, but look -- >> you want him to win florida? you want marco rubio to win florida? >> i'd like to win florida. i don't see it's in the cards like it is i'm going to win ohio. >> fair enough. >> but look, the bottom line is i don't go telling people what they should do and particularly when they're for me, go support somebody else. if that was the case, that doesn't make sense to me, okay? >> fair enough. is your campaign now working actively with other campaigns, ted cruz and marco rubio, for strategies to deny trump delegates? are you at that faze of this campaign yet? >> no, if it's going on, i'm unaware of it. because here's why, chuck, this is not class president. this is commander in chief and leader of the free world. i mean, i've got the foreign policy experience and the success and the domestic policy experience and the success to be able to help lift this country, bring people together. so all this-
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just, you know, stuff that's way out here. i'm more focused on giving people some hope that america can get its spirit back. >> all right. governor john kasich, i'm going to leave it there. stay safe on the trail. >> thank you. >> tuesday's going to be fascinating. >> all right. chuck, thank you. >> you got it. when we come back, how much is donald trump to blame for the violence at his rallies? and later, ted cruz says donald trump, quote, affirmatively encourages violence. i'll ask him about that and more in just a few minutes. brought to you by
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welcome back. the panel is here. alex, veteran republican strategist who of course has worked for the doles of the world, the bushes, mitt romney. he is the republican establishment right now. anne garrett, political correspondent at "the washington post," doris goodwin and conservative radio talk show host hugh hewitt. i'm going to start with you, doris. how did we get to where chicago friday night for a brief period looked like chicago '68? >> it not only looked like chicago '68 but chicago 1912, clubs and baseball bats in front of the room to not let the
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they'd scuffle in the lobbies and dynamite explosions went off. we should remember we've been through this before, but the difference is we're seeing it live now just as we did in '68. and so you're feeling what's happening to our country. as an historian i might say, oh, this is exciting to be able to know 200 years from now an historian would be able to detail this the way i couldn't in 1912, but as a citizen it's pretty sad. >> look at this what we've put together of trump and some of the remarks he's done. take a listen. >> he was swinging. he was hitting people. and the audience hit back. and that's what we need a little bit more of. you know what they used to do to guys like that when they were in a place like this? they'd be carried out on a stretcher, folks. like to punch him in the face. i'll tell ya. no politician's going to solve it. i was going to say they're full of [ bleep ], but i won't say that. so if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of
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seriously. just knock the -- i promise you, i will pay for the legal fees. i promise. see the first group -- i was nice. oh, take your time. the second group i was pretty nice. the third group i'll be a little more violent. and the fourth group i'll say get the hell out of here! [ cheers and applause ] >> hugh hewitt. >> well, the trump tractor beam is pretty strong but marco rubio hopes someone flips it off and i think it took a big hit over the last 72 hours. if you remember the 1999 battle for seattle, nobody liked that. it recoiled from it. there are professional disrupters. he is now a magnet for it. >> magnet for it. >> that is going to accelerate. and john kasich, i think we're going to have a throwback tuesday where he wins in ohio because he is the opposite of that. he's actually -- i was reminded of him when i was seeing george schultz in the front row of the nancy reagan funeral, perhaps the greatest living american pub
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credentialed. john kasich is credentialed. donald trump is the tractor beam on the disappointed, but i think this week it's changing. >> all right. hugh, every sunday we come to this point. i was joking with our producer, alex, for the last six weeks it's been, boy, trump's in trouble. then tuesday comes and he wins big. oh, he's about to runaway with it. then he does something controversial. trump's in trouble. same pattern? >> how many times can you bury donald trump? >> only for him to resurrect again. >> right. the race hasn't changed. it looks like after tuesday john kasich is going to be the new marco rubio in a three-way race. guess what, donald trump has the most intense third. this thing goes on almost exactly unchanged despite all of this. this is the most fun and the most frightening campaign that i've ever seen in that sense. long-term redefinition i think of the republican party. i
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do that. he's so unique. well, trump is trump. he's not really a republican or conservative. this is going somewhere that none of us i think imagined. and there's a good chance that republicans just need to take this thing -- assert themselves by offering a better, more hopeful visionary direction of where this party needs to go. >> you know, anne, what i've been surprised at is rubio, cruz and kasich won't go that final step and say, you know what, i can't do it. if trump's the nominee, i'm walking away. and i just think that makes them look like typical politicians who want to have it both ways. >> right. they also won't say -- they won't call him a racist, they won't kind of go that final mile where they make the point what he's doing is in their view out of bounds and they will not countenance it. they go almost there but not quite. >> this morning,
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comparison to george wallace. said the democratic party did shut wallace out. and through essentially rhetorically threw him out. does the republican party need to do that with donald trump? >> no. i don't think so. because i don't think trump is a racist. i don't think he has a violence in his heart. i've seen first-time candidates get up there, you get up on stage, you start, you know, you're having fun, a protester, oh, you do more of it and it's all fun and games until one day there's blood on the floor. and now there's blood on the floor. and how trump reacts now, what i've seen so far he's reacting exactly the wrong way. he needs to demonstrate now that he's mature. but for the republican party to tell a bunch of frustrated voters that, no, therefore you have to accept more of the same failure from the republican establishment has changed nothing, failure from a democratic establishment that offers nothing -- >> see and that ignited in '68. that's what they have to be
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>> this could have been a dividing line in a good way for trump. if he had answered your question differently -- there's no way he's going to disavow what he said about the wall and things like that. he's harnessed the anger through that. but he could say if my rhetoric did produce some of the feelings, then i want to say to my supporters that i shouldn't have used that rhetoric. and i will not use it in the future. he could have been a presidential potential. this was the moment -- it gave him a real moment and he didn't take it because temperamentally he couldn't. >> if he told me i just got off the phone with the young man that was hit and i said i was sorry this happened to him. >> what alex has said, donald trump is a developer. developers do what works. what he has been doing is what has been working. it is not working this weekend. and i expect that the reason -- >> he will not change. he will change and they won't disavow. >> you've come here many sundays and said that and then tuesday happens. and a pause here. we'll be back in a moment with senator ted cruz of texas who
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john kasich would get out of the race, he could beat trump one-on-one. we were born 100 years ago into a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. ♪ being hacked and intellectual property being stolen. that is cyber-crime and it affects each and every one of us.
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yesterday that didn't get much attention. marco rubio won the republican caucus in washington, d.c. by one point over john kasich. ted cruz took the gop caucus in guam. yes, guam. every delegate matters. none of this changes the delegate math per se. donald trump now leads ted cruz by 84 votes. yesterday i was joined by senator ted cruz of texas and we started by talking about trump. let me start with the tone of the campaign. and you have addressed this a couple of times in specifically having to do with donald trump's rallies. let me play two different explanations you've given to this, one from the debate and one from friday. here it is. >> we've seen for seven years a president who believes he's above the law, who behaves like an emperor. and when you have a campaign that disrespects the voters, when you have a campaign that affirmatively encourages vnc
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environment that only encourages this sort of nasty discord. >> is donald trump the one responsible for the tone of his rallies and donald trump alone? >> well, let's be clear. the protesters have no right to engage in violence. they have no right to threaten violence. and these protesters whether it's black lives matter or bernie sanders protesters who are coming in just trying to shout down any speaker, that's not free speech. the first amendment gives you a right to speak, but it doesn't give you a right to silence others. so the protesters are behaving abusively and wrong. but at the end of the day in any campaign, responsibility starts at the top. and it is not beneficial when you have a presidential candidate like donald trump telling his supporters, punch that guy in the face. >> what would you advise donald trump to do? because this is reflecting on the republican party as a whole, or it could considering he's currently
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>> listen, i think every candidate ought to aspire towards decency, towards bringing us together. i don't think we should be using angry and hateful rhetoric. i don't think we should be cursing at people. listen, i tell you, i've been troubled -- i mentioned at the debate this week, i'm troubled by the rallies donald holds where he skz people there to raise their hand and pledge their support to him. this is america, we don't pledge allegiance to a man. we pledge allegiance to a flag, we pledge our support for the constitution, but that is something you see kings and queens doing of their subjects. and all of this is part and parcel of the same thing. we need a president who understands he works for the people. listen, i am running to pledge my support to you, not the other way around. and i hope that all of the candidates reflect that understanding. >> i want you to react to something here that president obama said at a fundraiser responding to the tone of donald trump rallies. here it is,
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our politics lately, it's not an accident. for years we've been told we should be angry about america and that the economy's a disaster and that we're weak and that compromise is weakness and that you can ignore science and you can ignore facts and say whatever you want about the preside president. and feed suspicion about immigrants and muslims and poor people and people who aren't like us. >> that's the president essentially saying this is been happening for years before most of his term. >> you know, chuck, barack obama is a world class demagogue. that language there is designed to divide us. no, mr. president, we're not angry at that. we're angry at politicians in washington including you who ignore the men and women who elected you, who have been presiding over our jobs going
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overseas for seven years, who have been cutting deals that are enriching the rich and powerful, the special interests and the big corporations while working men and women are seeing their wages stagnating. and he talks about immigrants and muslims. mr. president, we're mad at a president who wants to bring in syrian refugees who may be infiltrated by isis. and you're unwilling to be commander in chief to keep us safe so don't engage in attacking people like the president did. that language is the kind of self-righteous moralizing from the president that makes people angry. >> do you think that's worse than what donald trump's been doing? >> to be honest, i think it's very much the same. they're both engaging in demagog demagoguery. we need instead a president who wakes up every day working for the hard working taxpayers. if i'm president, chuck, my focus is going to be the hard working taxpayers bringing back jobs and economic growth. we're going to do that by repealing obamacare, by passing a simple flat tax, by
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the irs, by pulling back the regulations that are killing small business. >> isn't it fair to say this is a your strategy is to get to a contested convention because you can't win this before the convention? >> not remotely. not remotely, chuck. >> the math doesn't work, sir. >> it works perfectly. in order for anyone to be the nominee you need 1,237 delegates. there are only two of us that have any plausible path to get there, me and donald trump. i've got 362. he has 99 more than i do right now. now, to get -- nobody else is remotely close. now, what this primary has been about for the past year has been narrowing and narrowing and narrowing the field. when we get head-to-head, not only do i beat donlald, but i beat him squarely. what we're seeing happening right now is we're seeing republicans uniting behind our campaign. now, a lot of the media focuses on florida and ohio, what the numbers are clear if kasich and rubio had dropped out already, we would be beating
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ohio. >> you know our florida poll the combined number of you and rubio would be able to overtake trump. but you've been campaigning in florida, rubio has a better shot at beating him, denying trump the delegates is what you need to do in florida, is it not? >> no, we're not engaged in this delegate denial strategy that came out of the washington establishment because they have dreams of a brokered convention dropping their favorite washington candidate in to win. that would be a disaster. the people would revolt. the only way to beat donald trump is beat him at the ballot box. and there's only one candidate that can get to 1237 and beat donald trump, and that's me. >> you've said some tough things on trump. why are you comfortable supporting him as the nominee if he ends up the nominee? >> listen, i pledged at the outset i will support the republican nominee whoever it is. >> why are you making a pledge to a party and not to the voters? >> because hillary clinton or bernie sanders wd
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if hillary is the president, we will lose the supreme court for a generation, the second amendment will be written out of the bill of rights, we'll lose our religious liberty, we'll be buried in debt and kids will remain coming out of school without jobs, without opportunity. hillary would be disastrous for this country. so the answer is not simply to resign yourself to donald trump, who would be a disaster as well. the answer is to beat donald. >> given everything you've just said about him in this interview you still will support him if that's what the republican party does? >> you know, chuck, i'm a very simple man. when i give my word for something, i follow through and do what i said. coming up, why donald trump's track record in the primary so far actually provides some big clues on which states he's going to win on tuesday. then later -- >> my message is resonating with a very diverse group of white pe
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but it's possible you don't need polls to look at trump's chances in a state. right now just look at how he's already performed. so we looked at the 15 states donald trump has already won to see what we found. and guess what, two things have jumped out at us. number one, trump has been winning in states where the unemployment rate is above the national average of 5%. and two, he's winning in states where the african-american population is above 8%, now to be sure this doesn't apply to every state trump has won, however he is 9 for 9 in states where both of those factors are in place. so what does that tell us about where trump might win in the future? of the 24 remaining contests on the gop side, four of unemployment above 5% and black population above 8%. and guess what, three of those four states are voting on tuesday. illinois, north carolina and florida. and guess what, polls are showing that he is ahead in all of those three stat
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they don't vote until april 26th. what does this all mean? people vote for many different reasons. but what trump has tapped into, this issue of race and economic struggle, they're closely tied. and he's taking advantage of it. african-american population is an indicator, not because trump is winning the minority vote, but because he's winning among white voters who live in communities with large minority populations. when we come back, why we might be looking at separation tuesday this week. will donald trump and hillary clinton ♪ i love to take pictures that engage people. and to connect us with the wonderment of nature. the detail on this surface book is amazing. with the tiger image, the saliva coming off and you got this turning. that's why i need this kind of resolution and computing power. being able to use a pen like this. on the screen directly with the image. it just gives me a different relationship to it. and i can't do that on my mac. this is brilliant for me. ♪
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panel is back to look ahead to what we're calling separation tuesday -- what i'm calling separation tuesday. i'm trying very hard to make this work. but like our friends on game day, they try to rivalry saturday. well, this is separation tuesday. well, we go through the best case scenarios for all. if trump wins florida and loses ohio, then he has to win 59% of all remaining delegates in a three-way race. if cruz wins, 35% of proportional delegates, best case scenario for him he then has to win 80% of remaining delegates in order to make it to the convention without contested convention. and if rubio wins florida, he would have to win 98% of all remaining delegates. here's our favorite math i used with john kasich earlier. if he wins ohio, he's got to win 112% of remaining delegates. alex, you're a math major, right? >> absolute
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you? >> two and two -- trump's got three things going into this convention, assuming he's going to lose ohio, he's got a carrot, a stick and a deal. he's very good at deals. the stick is his voters are intense and we're going to want to keep those voters in the republican party. it's going to be hard to exclude those voters. tell them, hey, trump, you've come in with the most votes but you don't have any right to this nomination. >> going to be tough to do. >> that's the stick. the carrot is we've seen ben carson join the trump campaign. >> right. >> what would a trump administration look like? a convention can sort out a lot of those things. and if trump's as good at making deals, you know, that's a card he can play. the problem is this kind of intense emotional violence we're seeing this week makes that awfully tough to achieve. >> i was just going to say it feels like short-term game, long-term pain for donald trump to unify the party. >> i mean, he hasn't tried. he's so far had no reason to. he's winning by
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people who haven't been traditional republican voters in many cases or who've been disaffected in others. he says he wants to be a unifier and at some point he would actually have to start doing that. but to this point there's been no imperative for him. >> hugh, will the stop trump movement ever fizzle? i feel like it has fizzled, but meaning will it ever die? will they ever sort of capitulate and say nothing we can do about it, it's his nomination? >> i don't think so. i think the party would split. senator ben sass is pretty much committed and i talk about turn to 1912 because that was an breakup, i don't know how you make a marriage with donald trump and either of the other two. with lying ted, he said it to you this morning. >> again. >> it's a divorce and it's final. >> i think just listening to what hugh said, i agree. i think the never trump movement has said such tough things about
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about his ideology, they're saying he's unfit, he's delusional, he will destroy our party, he'll destroy our country. if you've said those kind of things, and these are big people on record, real activists in the republican party, how can they turn around and say i think they'd be better off, they themselves have said we want a third party, we want to split. we have to create this new republican party for the future. >> barring a sweep by trump, seems like the conclusion is after tuesday assuming kasich wins ohio, contested convention here we come. cleveland, get your rule books ready. the democratic side, anne, has been interesting here because if it wasn't for this republican race we'd be sitting there going, boy, what's going on here? we showed the illinois numbers. i can tell you the clinton campaign is very nervous about ohio, very nervous about missouri which looks an awful lot like oklahoma to them. rahm emanuel's unpopularity may cost them votes in chicago they normally would have. and they're even thinking north carolina's going to be close. >> yeah. i mean, this week is sort of a replay of super tuesday for them where -- >> but in a m
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approach. >> absolutely. i was going to say without the many advantages going in we thought she had there. and we really can't underestimate the blow that michigan dealt to the campaign. she was supposed to win there. she expended a lot of political capital and a lot of time and effort to win there and she lost badly. >> and i'll tell you i think the auto bailout hit, i think they wish they'd done it sooner. >> right. >> they sort of blew that one. but they've been wary, alex. it's sort of like they have one foot in the general, they don't want ta alienate sanders, they don't want to anger him or his voters and at the same time they need to defeat him. >> well, bernie sanders is going to be the democratic nominee. >> what? >> yes. whether he's wearing a man suit or a pantsuit. >> oh, i see what you're saying. >> the campaign belongs to bernie sanders. it's not hillary's campaign. she's the figure head and that's why it's so difficult. >> but she's going to grab it. >> she's going to grab it. she'll end up being the
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but it doesn't fit her at all. how can she sell that in a general? >> you know how she sells it? donald trump. >> there's something called the second baseman can't throw to first, golfers can't make putts. she had a terrible week at the reagan funeral and the aids comment, terrible response to chicago, she makes more forced errors than sax and the dodgers. >> that's going way back. >> i must say she came out and said she misspoke. you have to give her credit for immediately saying, exhausted and said the wrong thing about aids and she's in a funeral, she's in the that golden moment, but most importantly she said -- that's when misspoke really works. i said something wrong. >> actually, i'm going to pause here. we're going to play it on the other side because it's interesting she used misspoke because it may be a misremember, not a misspoken. we'll be back in less than a minute. our end game segment and a transformative moment from "snl" that alex just previewed.
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end game time. the panel is here, as i promised, doris, let me play first of all the quote we're all talking about. this was hillary clinton with andrea mitchell at nancy reagan's memorial service. >> the other point i wanted to make too is it may be hard for your viewers to remember how difficult it was for people to talk about hiv/aids back in the 1980s. and because of both president and mrs. reagan, in particular 34 mrs. reagae
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before nobody would talk about it. >> all right. well, they quickly cleaned this up after getting a whole mess of complaints from the lgbt community. hillary clinton put up a tweet said the reagans were strong advocates for stem cell research in finding a cure for alzheimer's disease i misspoke for records on hiv and aids. for that i'm sorry. now, a misspeak, that didn't look like a misspeak. they gave an explanation of what she was trying to refer to. >> well, yeah. i mean, it's kind of unbelievable that she could completely conflate or misremember one of the central tenants of the aids crisis, right? >> which was that the -- did the reagan administration do enough? >> exactly. at the time the crisis emerged the president was looking the other way and actively doing so is the way that narrative goes and nancy reagan was chief among that. but during the reagan administration, the surgeon general, recognized the problem and actually tried to knock
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that door at the white house to get the white house to do more. yes, i mean -- >> behind the scenes supposedly, alex, you hear that she saved his job she quietly said, no, no, no. >> can a republican defend hillary clinton on the rare occasions we get a chance? the woman made a mistake. we all do. she campaigns so mechanically sometimes you think she's patented, not born, right? she has to make spots that she actually has a mother to remind us of her humanity. she made a mistake. she said i'm sorry i did that, i got that one wrong. good for her. that's the kind of candidate i think people would love to see a little more of. >> a little more spon nay tanei >> one of the great things reagan would say i'd like to think i'm smarter today than yesterday. so she understand what this is all about. that's critical for growth for some candidate or any leader, they're all going to screwup
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some point and they have to acknowledge it and grow from it and figure out. i give her credit for that. i understand why people were angry though because that was a huge moment in the aids community. and they have a right to be angry. >> absolutely. and in the intervening hours before the apology -- >> took them a while. >> well, not that long. >> it was a brush fire. they didn't know this was going to be such a thing. >> well, it became a thing instantly. they got a lot of blowback. and they tried to deal with it as quickly as they could. >> the outrage in the industry in america though overwhelms everything and at the end of the day devalues genuine outrage, which we needed and there's plenty of opportunity for that in this campaign. >> the reagan years were silent on aids. and it's part of the principle planks of the criticism of president reagan the band played on, all those books they stayed silent. i think it's a terrible campaign response. every candidate makes mistakes either you respond to them quickly and the chicago statement was awful. >> well, i'll tell you if they lose
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emanuel. and apparently he knows it. there's nothing he can do about it. he's a toxic figure. that just is what it is. it's fascinating how she's getting punished for rahm. >> he's been invisible with her. >> well, has to be. alex is giving all this away, but we have to play "snl," you get the whole thing now here, alex. bernie sanders and the impact on hillary clinton. here it is. >> you're fired up. you're angry. and i'm angry too. because the top 10% of the top 1% controls 90% of the wealth in this country. so thank you millennial for lending your support to the biggest outsider jew in the race, hillary rodham clinton. >> but, doris, that actually is what's happening. bernie sanders has won the message primary. >> i think that's true. >> he won the
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>> this is their sense of rendezvous with destiny. you have to get that younger generation to support what you're doing. you've got to move in that direction. you know what's fun about watching this though it just reminds you politics used to be fun. >> yeah. >> when they did dirty tricks on each other, they were fun tricks, dressing up a whole bunch of nuns looking like they held nixon signs -- >> or inviting basically sending too many pizzas to fundraiser. literally high jings. >> we're not getting high jinx but i think that demonstrates why some republicans are in despair because indicates a cruz ticket would beat a. >> she makes the race about him and you can't make the race about her. that's all we have for today. we'll be back next week. if it's sunday, it's "meet the press."
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it's monday, march 14th. coming up on "early today," vitriol and violence filled many donald trump rallies over the weekend but will tuesday's big vote accident the front-runner? dangerous tornado in multiple states and deadly floods inundate thousands caught as waters continue to rise. a police cruiser is stolen leading cops in a high-speed chase of one of their own heavily armed cars. plus let the bracketology begin at the ncaa tournament is set. where in the world has richard simmons been. and "saturday night live" lights up the weekend with the return of larry david. "early today" starts right now. good morning. i'm dara brown. we're only one day out from tuesday's all important

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